Weigh the electoral debacle and the loss of the majority, but also the duties
Shigeru Ishiba’s experience has lasted less than a year in Japan at the helm of the government. Long-course politician, defined by the local press from the beginning of his mandate “the improbable premier”, the 68-year-old native of Tottori, in the central archipelago, seemed to have driven out the ghosts after being appointed leader of the liberal-democratic party (LDP) to his fifth attempt, and from October 1, 2024 new head of the executive. An assignment started under a bad hope, with the sudden collapse of the financial markets, due to the “Ishiba shock”, and continued in the worst way with the loss of the majority in the lower chamber in the general elections called at the end of the same month, with the worst result since 2009 for the conservative party.
The advent of the Trump administration and the battle on the duties did not favor the efforts of the executive he led by him, downsizing the expectations of a resumption of expansion for the fourth world economy, already struggling with the serious demographic crisis, the stall of consumption and the protracted of the uncertainty about negotiations with the main commercial ally. The loss of the numerical prevalence also in the Senate in the vote of 20 July was the point of no return.
Such a radical defeat in both classrooms of Parliament had never occurred from the date of foundation of the party, in 1955. And not even the recent commercial understanding with Washington for the reduction of duties on imports, managed to remedy. In recent weeks, the pressures to give new life to the party have intensified, and gradually even the most faithful allies have paraded by a council of ministers who seemed to have the days counted. Starting with the Secretary General of the ADP, Hiroshi Moriyama, key figure and main ally of Ishiba, as well as the “calls to common sense” of the former premier 85 year old Taro Aso, the great textor of Japanese politics, and head of one of the most powerful party factions.
The resignation of Ishiba anticipate the vote by one day to decide a change of leadership, which, if approved, would have represented a real motion of no confidence in him. During a Sunday television press conference, arranged in a hurry, Ishiba assured that he would start a trial to indirest a party leadership vote to choose his substitute, and that there was no need for Monday’s decision.
Among the possible candidates, Shinjiro Koizumi, a young scion of the popular ex premier junichiro and current minister of agriculture, the ultra conservative Sanae Takaichi, a murderer of the assassinated premier Shinzo Abe, make their way, who, if elected, would become the first woman in Japan at the helm of the executive, and the secretary of the cabinet and former foreign minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi, considering a moderate. Not having the majority in both rooms, the next leader of the ADP will have to collaborate with the main parties of the opposition for the approval of any bill. At the same time, the observers point out, the excessive fragmentation of opponent parties in Parliament would not allow to form a large coalition capable of overturning the government. In a recent survey conducted by the Kyodo agency, almost 55% of interviewees said they did not find it necessary to call early elections. A hope that once again has not been reflected in politics of politics, while the moves of the investors did not wait, with the further devaluation of the Yen in the days that anticipated the resignation, and the massive sale of the Japanese thirty -year government bonds (JGB), whose performance has reached record levels.
