The peak in baby boomer deaths puts systems and budgets in crisis
At least nine of Japan’s twenty government-designated cities are at risk of not having enough crematoria around 2040, when the aging baby-boom generation will push deaths to an all-time high. This was revealed by an investigation by the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, according to which the growing demand is already weighing on the accounts of municipalities, which are having difficulty financing the modernization of dated plants.
Under Japan’s cemetery and burial law, operators must obtain permission from prefectural or municipal authorities and, per a directive from the former Ministry of Health, operate on a non-profit basis. At the end of the 2025 fiscal year, there were 1,316 public facilities, approximately 97% of the 1,350 crematoriums in the country, managed individually or jointly by the municipalities. When asked about the possibility of exceeding annual capacity, Yokohama and Hiroshima responded that the threshold has already been exceeded. Five cities expect shortages in the 2030s: Saitama around 2030, Chiba in 2033, Sakai in 2035, Sagamihara between 2035 and 2036, and Kawasaki in 2036.
In Chiba, east of Tokyo, families already wait seven to ten days in the winter months. All cities, except Okayama, have new construction, renovation or expansion plans. The cost issue pushed the association of mayors of the designated cities to ask, in December and for the first time, for financial support from the State. Demographic estimates, meanwhile, already appear to be outdated: in 2023 the national institute for demographic research predicted a peak of around 1.65 million deaths in 2040, but the 2025 data are around 70 thousand higher than the projections.
Tokyo could also face a shortage around 2040. In the 23 municipalities, the market is dominated by a few private companies and tariffs have increased significantly; metropolitan government and local administrations are considering urgent measures. Behind the numbers looms a challenge that questions the entire Japanese society: how to guarantee, in a country that is aging faster than any other, a last dignified farewell to a generation that rebuilt post-war Japan. The time to respond, the investigation warns, is decreasing.
