Economic repercussions after Beijing’s warning
Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan, the two main Asian economies, are not easing, penalizing primarily tourist flows. In fact, plane tickets canceled from China to Japan amount to almost 500 thousand, following the warning issued by Beijing advising its citizens against traveling to the neighboring country. The alert comes against the backdrop of a diplomatic escalation triggered by the statements of the Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, according to which Tokyo could intervene militarily in the event of an attack on Taiwan, the island claimed by Beijing as an integral part of its state. According to estimates by aeronautical sector analysts, cited by the AFP agency, there was a collapse in active bookings from 1.5 million on 15 November to one million just two days later. “This is a decline of 33% in 48 hours, well beyond the average daily decline of 5% that we have observed since 2023,” Li Hanming explained to AFP. China’s three major airlines have announced full refunds for all flights to Japan booked by December 31, and the economic impact is already tangible. Chinese tourists in fact represent the main source of visitors for the Land of the Rising Sun with over 8.2 million visitors between January and October, an increase of 40% compared to last year, and in the third quarter alone they spent over a billion dollars a month, covering almost 30% of the overall tourist spending in Japan. Already at the beginning of the week, stocks in the tourism sector and the main retail groups on the Tokyo Stock Exchange suffered sharp declines, anticipating the possible economic repercussions on the economy. According to public broadcaster NHK, the decline in tourist flows from China for a prolonged period of one year could cause an economic loss of at least 11.5 billion dollars.
