Hung parliament expected in Catalonia

Catalonia goes to the polls tomorrow (Thursday) with polls saying pro-secessionist and unionist parties are too close to call, leading to a possible hung parliament.
“It’s crucial to look at who will have a majority and it looks like no one will have a proper majority,” Borja Lasheras of the European Council on Foreign Relations told CNBC.
“You see a very divided society in Catalonia with extremely competing narratives and Catalonia will remain deeply fractured.”
Catalonia, which accounts for about 20 per cent of Spain’s economy, has long felt that it subsidises its neighbouring regions. Spain’s financial crisis, which began in 2008, has meant many young Catalans cannot find work or buy a home.
There is also the legacy of the 40-year rule of the dictator Francisco Franco, when the Catalan language was banned and its culture denigrated. After his Franco’s death in 1975, a new constitution gave Catalonia many of the trappings of autonomy, but many still felt stifled by Madrid’s rule.
The former vice president, Oriol Junqueras, remains jailed in Spain, along with several other leading politicians.
And ex-president Carles Puigdemont fled to Belgium when Spain issued a warrant for his arrest on serious sedition charges.
More than 2,500 companies have moved their headquarters out of Catalonia, and tourism has fallen by about 5 per cent since the October 1 referendum.
To elect the 135-member parliament for a four-year term, voters cast ballots by party, and the parties then allocate the seats.
The threshold needed to enter the parliament is 3 per cent of the vote. The pro-independence coalition members are Junts pel Si, or Together for Yes, which allied with the small far-left Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP). Parties opposing independence include the Ciutadans, a key ally of Spain’s ruling Popular Party led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the second-largest party in the disbanded parliament. Parliamentarians then select the regional president.
The two parties expected to gain the most seats individually are the Ciudadanos and Junqueras’ pro-independence ERC, according to ever-unreliable polling, with each potentially gaining around 33 seats.
Turnout might exceed 80 per cent while only around 40 per cent of the electorate voted in the October 1 independence referendum.
Wolfango Piccoli of the risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence said a hung parliament was the most likely outcome.
“Even if pro-independence parties obtain a majority of seats, it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be able to quickly form a government,” he said.
“The separatist movement remains divided on who should be the next first minister and whether the next government should continue to push for independence unilaterally. Government-formation negotiations will likely be protracted,” Piccoli added.

Emotions are running high in Catalonia. Picture credit: Wikimedia