Populists benefit from joint elections: study
Today (Sunday) Swedes vote in their general election and the Sweden Democrats (SD) may become the second-biggest party, a move that would see the party grow closer in popularity to the centre-left Social Democrats, the architects of the welfare state who have won the most seats in every general election since 1917.
Ever-unreliable polls suggest the SD will increase its vote share over the 13 per cent it received in 2014.
The populist, anti-immigrant, anti-EU party is exploiting resentment over the arrival since 2015 of more immigrants per capita than any other European Union country.
Jennifer Fitzgerald, a political scientist at the University of Colorado, said the increasing trend across Europe to hold regional and national votes on the same day was boosting support for the far-right.
In more than 300 legislative elections, across around 30 advanced democracies mostly in Europe from 1980 to 2010, when municipal elections are held in the same year as a general election, populist parties receive on average six percentage points more support at the national level, compared to cases where regional elections are held in “off years”.
Fitzgerald said voters who felt strongly tied to their municipal areas were particularly supportive of radical-right parties.
In contrast, people who routinely take part in community activities, such as hobby clubs, tended to have limited appetite for extremist parties.
In many countries, feelings of regional attachment increased while engagement in civic life declined, the academic argued. This means that a growing number of voters had strong feelings about their communities, which can promote political extremism but are not particularly committed to norms of moderation that are backed up by regular social engagement. Strong regional identity is most relevant for politics during municipal elections when voters are focused on localised problems and weighing proposed solutions.
Fitzgerald argued that holding municipal and national elections at the same time could “yield a nationally aggregated sense of regional protectionism”.
In Sweden, the nation and municipal elections are scheduled for today. The 290 municipal and 20 county council assemblies have significant authority in Sweden, controlling certain taxes and regulations.
This makes Swedish regional elections particularly meaningful compared to countries where decision-making is more concentrated at a national level.
The convergence of the municipal and general elections bodes well for the SD, she said.
Holding elections simultaneously saves on administrative costs and can boost turnout but Fitzgerald argued that they also boost the radical-right parties.
The rest of Europe is watching Sweden carefully today. Picture credit: Wikimedia
